The Civix21 Framework

A three-tier model for measuring civic health

How do you measure whether a society is working? Not through political opinion or economic output alone — but through the full relationship between institutions, citizens, and the world they operate in.

The Civix21 Framework is an independent, evidence-based model for assessing national civic health. It draws on 15 authoritative global datasets to produce scores that are transparent, comparable across countries, and trackable over time.

Most assessments of how well a country is doing focus on economic performance, democratic rankings, or corruption indices in isolation. The Civix21 Framework takes a different approach: it asks three distinct questions at three different levels, and synthesises the answers into a single, interpretable picture.

The framework is designed to reveal what aggregate statistics often obscure — particularly the growing divergence between how institutions perform and how much citizens trust them. That divergence, which we call the Trust Gap, is the framework's most significant finding.

Architecture

Three tiers. Three questions.

Each tier addresses a distinct dimension of civic health. Together they produce a complete picture.

01
Trust Health

Is the state legitimate — from the inside?

Measures the internal health of a nation's institutions. Produces a Structural Score (what institutions can actually do), a Relational Score (whether citizens trust and engage with them), and the Trust Gap between the two.

Data live on Trustgap · 90 countries scored

Explore Tier 1
02
Strategic Position

How does the state relate to the world?

Measures a nation's external position — the influence it projects outward (Power Score) against the dependencies and vulnerabilities it absorbs from the outside (Exposure Score). Produces a Net Strategic Position.

In development · Tier 2 methodology published

About Tier 2
03
Resilience Band

How durable is the system as a whole?

Synthesises Tiers 1 and 2 into a single durability classification — from High Resilience down to Systemically Vulnerable. The band captures both internal legitimacy and external exposure in one interpretable output.

In development · Dependent on Tier 2 completion

About Tier 3
Country & Council Reports Need a deeper analysis? We produce briefings on request. Country reports · Council reports · Regional briefings · Cross-group analysis
Tier 1 — Trust Health

Structural capacity meets citizen experience

Tier 1 is the published, live dataset. It scores 90 countries on two equally weighted pillars — and the gap between them is the finding that matters most.

Structural Pillar

What institutions are capable of doing. Measures formal governance capacity, political stability, rule of law, and the conditions that enable economic mobility.

Governance Effectiveness

World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators

Political Stability

World Bank WGI

Rule of Law / Anti-Corruption

World Justice Project + Transparency International CPI

Economic Mobility

WEF Social Mobility Index + Gini coefficient + OECD Education

Relational Pillar

How citizens actually experience and engage with those institutions. Measures trust, social cohesion, media credibility, and civic participation — the legitimacy layer.

Trust in Government & Institutions

Edelman Trust Barometer

Social Cohesion & Belonging

Bertelsmann Transformation Index + World Values Survey + V-Dem

Media Trust & Information Health

Reuters Digital News Report + RSF Press Freedom + Edelman Media

Civic Participation & Democracy

IDEA Voter Turnout + OECD/Gallup + V-Dem Institute

"The Trust Gap — Structural Score minus Relational Score — is the single most important number the framework produces. A gap exceeding 20 points flags a country as at risk of democratic instability, regardless of how well its institutions appear to function on paper."
Civix21 Framework — Tier 1 Methodology
Tier 1 Output

Four quadrant classifications

Every scored country is placed in one of four quadrants, based on the combination of its Structural and Relational scores.

Stable Democracy

High structural capacity. High citizen trust. The healthiest classification — and the rarest in practice.

Structural ≥65 · Relational ≥65

Efficient But Distant

Institutions function. Citizens don't trust them. The dominant pattern across liberal democracies — and the central warning of our dataset.

Structural ≥65 · Relational <65

Polarised Democracy

Both structural capacity and citizen trust are weakened. Political division dominates. Institutional reform is contested at every turn.

Structural <65 · Relational <65

Fragile State

Critically low structural capacity. Institutional failure is active, not latent. Regime characteristics often prevent reliable measurement.

Structural <50 · Relational <50

Countries with a Trust Gap exceeding 20 points are flagged as at risk of quadrant migration — regardless of their current classification. This flag has proven to be a leading indicator of democratic stress in the dataset to date.

See Country Scores on Trustgap →
Tier 2 — Strategic Position

How a state relates to the world beyond its borders

Internal legitimacy alone does not determine a country's durability. A nation with strong institutions and citizen trust can still be acutely vulnerable if it is economically dependent on a single partner, energetically exposed, or geopolitically surrounded.

Tier 2 measures this external dimension through two equally weighted components:

Power Score

The influence a state projects outward. Draws on economic scale (IMF GDP/PPP), military capability (SIPRI/IISS), soft power and reputation (Brand Finance), and diplomatic reach (Lowy Institute).

Exposure Score

The vulnerabilities absorbed from outside. Measures trade dependence (World Bank/UNCTAD), energy dependence (IEA), supply chain vulnerability (OECD TiVA), and geopolitical exposure (UCDP/sanctions registries).

The difference — Power minus Exposure — produces a Net Strategic Position. A highly positive score indicates a state that shapes its environment more than it is shaped by it. A strongly negative score indicates strategic fragility even where domestic institutions are healthy.

Tier 2 scoring is currently in development. Methodology is finalised; dataset publication is planned for 2025.

Tier 3 — Resilience Band

A single durability classification

Tier 3 synthesises the Trust Health score from Tier 1 and the Net Strategic Position from Tier 2 into one interpretable output — the Resilience Band.

BAND 1

High Resilience

Functioning institutions · Positive strategic position

BAND 2

Stable But Constrained

Functioning institutions · Balanced strategic position

BAND 3

Resilient But Exposed

Functioning institutions · Exposed strategic position

BAND 4

Powerful But Fragile

Compromised institutions · Positive strategic position

BAND 5

Strained

Compromised institutions · Balanced strategic position

BAND 6

Systemically Vulnerable

Compromised institutions · Exposed strategic position

Tier 3 classification will be available once Tier 2 scoring is published. The six-band model is finalised and stable.

Methodology

How the scoring works

Four features distinguish the Civix21 Framework from other national assessment models.

Absolute Scaling

All scores run on a fixed 0–100 benchmark — not ranked relative to other countries. A score of 72 in 2024 means the same as a score of 72 in 2019. This enables genuine longitudinal tracking.

Authoritarian Context Protocol

Triggered when V-Dem falls below 0.30 and RSF press freedom rank is 130/180 or worse. Applies downward adjustments of −10 to −20 to Relational indicators where state suppression makes official survey data unreliable.

Binding Methodological Rules

CPI used exactly as published. WEF Social Mobility receives a mandatory −7 outcome adjustment for measurement overshoot. Political Stability recency adjustments capped at −10. Rules are fixed and non-negotiable across all country scores.

Primary Source Commitment

Every indicator draws directly from its primary data source — World Bank WGI, V-Dem Institute, Edelman, Reuters, SIPRI, IEA, Lowy Institute. No aggregated indices used as proxies for other aggregated indices.

Data Sources

Where the numbers come from

The Civix21 Framework draws on 15 primary datasets, each selected for methodological rigour, geographic coverage, and annual publication. All are publicly accessible and independently produced.

World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators
Transparency International — CPI
World Justice Project — Rule of Law Index
V-Dem Institute — Liberal Democracy Index
Edelman Trust Barometer
Reuters Institute Digital News Report
Reporters Without Borders — Press Freedom Index
WEF Global Social Mobility Index
Bertelsmann Transformation Index
World Values Survey
IDEA Voter Turnout Database
IMF — GDP/PPP Data
SIPRI — Military Expenditure Database
Lowy Institute — Global Diplomacy Index
IEA — Energy Dependency Data

Full methodology documentation — including weightings, conversion rules, and the Authoritarian Context Protocol — is published on trustgap.org.

Next Steps

See the framework in action

The Tier 1 dataset — 90 countries, scored and published — is live on Trustgap. Country profiles, score breakdowns, and the full Trust Gap ranking.

Explore Trustgap Data About Civix21
Reports & Briefings — available on request Country reports · Council reports · Regional briefings · Cross-group analysis Full sub-indicator breakdowns · Peer comparisons · Scored recommendations · Political context